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The Silent Competitor to Your Brand

In the beverage and spirits industry, we’re used to competition coming from new RTD brands, shifting distributor terms, or rising input costs. But today, a new and unexpected competitor is reshaping demand curves — and it’s not even on the shelf.


It’s in the medicine cabinet.


GLP-1 prescriptions like Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro, originally designed for diabetes and obesity, are changing consumer behavior in ways that directly impact our industry. These drugs reduce appetite and cravings — and that includes alcohol.

Why Founders Should Pay Attention


  • 9M+ U.S. users today, projected to reach 18M by 2030

  • GLP-1 users are 54% more likely to reduce alcohol consumption

  • Analysts expect a 3–4% global decline in alcohol consumption by 2035


For a founder, even a modest drop in consumption can have outsized effects. Imagine a $10M spirits startup: just a 10% decline in case volume could wipe out $550K in gross profit and shrink EBITDA margins from 20% to ~13%.


This isn’t about small shifts — it’s about redefining demand.

Who Wins, Who Loses

Not all categories are equally exposed.

  • At Risk: RTDs and mid-tier volume spirits

  • More Resilient: Premium sipping spirits, no/low-alcohol products, and functional wellness beverages


Founders with the right portfolio mix have a chance to capture market share while others stumble.

Finance Moves Founders Should Make Now

  1. Stress-test your forecasts (–10% and –20% scenarios).

  2. Premiumize your mix — consumers may drink less, but they’ll spend more for “better.”

  3. Protect working capital with leaner runs and flexible contracts.

  4. Keep fixed costs light — avoid CapEx tied to volume growth.

  5. Own the investor narrative before they ask the tough questions.

Looking Ahead

The biggest risks often come from outside the industry. GLP-1 isn’t just a trend; it’s a structural shift already underway. Founders who pivot early will not only protect profitability but strengthen their credibility with investors.


At ThreeStone Solutions, we help founders run the numbers, anticipate risks, and adapt strategies to stay ahead. Because clarity today means confidence tomorrow.


If you’re looking for more insights and resources, check out ThreeStone Solutions LLC. We’re here to empower you on your journey.



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